Juskis Earthquakeprediction Calendar Week 30

Sunday, July 22

Magnitude 6.5 +: 70% probability

Magnitude 7.0 +: 50% probability

 

No prediction for the affected region. The period of the earthquake is +/- 24 hours. Earthquake predictions for eartquakes of magnitude 6,5+ are similar to earthquake preditctions of earthquake series with three earthquakes of magnitude 6 or higher within the period mentioned above

Giant Solar Flare Targets Earth

Image: An orbiting spacecraft called the Solar Dynamics Observatory captured this view of the sun about an hour before it launched an X-class solar flare. The purple coloring shows the strength of magnetic fields of the sun. (NASA/SDO/AIA)

Wired Online has some details:

A giant solar flare shot out of a sunspot Thursday, hitting Earth with a powerful burst of X-ray and ultraviolet radiation. Solar researchers expect a small geomagnetic storm to follow and strike Earth this weekend, causing minor satellite glitches and major northern lights shows.

At 12:11 p.m. EDT, the flare began unleashing about a billion hydrogen bombs’ worth of energy. Radiation temporarily jammed some radio frequencies for about an hour.

Right behind the flare is a belch of solar atmosphere called a coronal mass ejection, or CME, which is now traveling toward Earth at about 3.1 million mph. The resulting solar storm should start on Earth on Friday and conclude by Saturday’s end.

Spaceweather has an interactive graphic showing the the path of the CME as it strikes the Earth HERE.  According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms.
ooo
The UV pulse partially ionized Earth’s upper atmosphere, disturbing the normal propagation of radio signals around the planet. Monitoring stations in Norway and Ireland recorded the sudden ionospheric disturbance.

The solar protons accelerated by the blast are swarming around Earth. The radiation storm  ranks “S1″ on NOAA space weather scales, which means it poses no serious threat to satellites or astronauts. However, there is always the threat of more powerful events, with a more signifiant out come, with a powerful CME pealing off the protective magnetic shield. exposing satellites, power grids and other sensitive electronic equipment.
National Geographic had an article on the history of the these more powerful radiation storms and my friend George Rebane did some Bayesian Analysis on the history of the more powerful events and concluded we would be more vulnerable in Solar Cycle 25, estimated to peak around 2022 “The probability is 0.967 that in the next sunspot cycle we will have an ‘extreme storm’ as defined in the . . . data you sent.” Other scientist predict that we have a 1-8 chance of a more powerful event by 2020.

BREAKING NEWS: AR 1520 Massive Solar Flare X-Class 1.4 CME - Earth Directed - 16:53 UT

X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because the sunspot was directly facing Earth at the time of the blast, this is a geoeffective event. Stay tuned for updates about possible CMEs and radio blackouts.  The UV and X-ray pulse from the flare will have partially ionized Earth's upper atmosphere on the dayside of our planet, disturbing the normal propagation of radio signals. Watch the Realtime Space Weather Gallery for possible reports of sudden ionospheric disturbances and other effects.

 

Juskis Earthquakeprediction Calendar Week 29

First, a correction of the last prediction: The peak-time of the next phase is not on Saturday 14 July, but on Sunday and Monday, 15-16. July.
The probability for M 6.5 + is 50% instead of 30%.
The probability of M 7 + is 30% The second phase is on Sunday, 22 July. The probability of magnitude 6.5 + is 70% and the probability of magnitude 7 + is 50%.

5.6 Magnitude Earthquake shakes Turkey and Greece

A magnitude 5.6 quake has hit east of the Greek island of Rhodes and south of the Turkish mainland, with tremors felt as far away as the Egyptian capital Cairo.
Turkish media report a 6.0 magnitude quake.
The quake’s epicenter lies in the Mediterranean Sea, east of the Greek island of Rhodes and south of the Turkish mainland. The quake occurred around 15.55 local time (13.55 GMT) at a depth of 19.4 km.
In the Turkish coastal town of Kalkan, the ground rumbled, spreading anxiety among residents and tourists. One panic-stricken woman broke her leg after jumping from a first floor balcony, the  Kalkan Turkish Local News website reports. The quake forced many people to go outside for safety. In supermarkets items were shaken from the shelves.   
The tremor was felt along the Mediterranean and Aegean coasts in the Turkish provinces of Antalya, Mugla and other areas – and also in nearby Greek islands. Israel was also affected.
No reports of deaths or damage in Greece and Turkey have followed thus far. No tsunami warning has been issued.
The latest major earthquake shook Turkey in October 2011, as a powerful 7.1-magnitude seism hit near the eastern city of Van. Over 600 people were killed and over 4,000 others injured in the disaster. Some 60,000 people were left homeless.
Earthquakes are a daily occurrence both in Turkey and Greece, which are criss-crossed by geological fault lines.

Source: RT NEWS

M 5.2 - 5.7 Earthquake Eastern Mediterranean Sea

F-E Region:	Eastern Mediterranean Sea	5.7 (Mw)
Time:	2012-07-09 13:55:00.5 UTC
Magnitude:	5.7 (mb)
Epicenter:	28.93°E  35.56°N
Depth:	53 km
Status:	M - manually revised

 

Source: GFZ

EARTHQUAKE WARNING

EARTHQUAKE WARNING in San Mateo, San Francisco, Berkeley. 5.2+ earthquake likely July 8-9. [[ High risk cities; Concord, Berkeley, San Francisco, Ashland, San Mateo, Fremont, Sunnyvale, Watsonville, Hollister, Aptos, San Jose, Boulder Creek.]] 

Very high risk in Hayward, San Francisco, Berkeley.

Moderate risk in San Luis Obispo, Santa Maria.

Moderate risk in Burbank, Pasadena.

Moderate risk in Moreno Valley and San Diego are

Source: http://www.quakeprediction.com/

M6.9 Solarflare, July 8 2012

Notorious Sunspot 1515 produced yet another strong M-class solar flare. This event started at 16:23 UTC on July 8, 2012, peaked 16:32 UTC at M6.9 and ended at 16:42 UTC. Sunspot 1515 is about to rotate to western limb so if any CME was produced it was not Earth directed. A moderate R2 radio blackout was reported – limited blackout of HF radio communication on sunlit side of Earth, loss of radio contact for tens of minutes. Navigation: Degradation of low-frequency navigation signals for tens of minutes.

 

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 08 1623 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Jul 08 1632 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 08 1642 UTC
X-ray Class: M6.9
Location: S17W74
NOAA Scale: R2 – Moderate
 

++ Earthquake Warning in Iceland. Reykjavik Region ++

Earthquake Warning for Strong Quake in Iceland. Reykjavik Region.
In Recent 4 Hours, there were 50 Minor Earthquakes (Earthquake swarm) in Iceland. Reykjavik Region. The Warning is Valid for the Next 7 Days. An Extention of the Warning is Possible.



++ The Risk of a strong Earthquake is high ++
Follow carefully the instructions of the competent authority.

M 4.2 Offshore Northern California

Magnitude: 4.2
Region: Offshore Northern California
DateTime: Sunday July 8 2012, 12:05:48 UTC
Depth: 1 km

Goes Juskis Prediction On??
We wait for the next Week.


http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/map_detail.php?id=204643

M 6.0 Earthquake Kuril Island

F-E Region:	Kuril Islands
Time:	2012-07-08 11:33:02.8 UTC
Magnitude:	6.0
Epicenter:	151.27°E  45.57°N
Depth:	10 km
Status:	C - confirmed

M 6.3 Earthquake Vanuatu

Magnitude: 6.3
Region: Vanuatu
DateTime: Friday July 6 2012, 02:28:24 UTC
Depth: 179 km

Location:
Pacific Ocean - West 46.38 km (28.82 miles) - of Port-Olry, Sanma, Vanuatu. 

Coordinate:  14° 41.382, 167° 15.972

Earthquakeprediction

Period of Time: 
Friday, July 6 

Probability
M 6,5+: 50%
M 7,0+: 20%